Global trade still depends heavily on the sea. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), around 80% of world trade by volume is carried by maritime transport. That is why shipping routes are far more than a logistics story. When a major trade route is disrupted, the effects can spread quickly through supply chains, freight costs and commodity prices before eventually appearing in inflation or growth data.
Global financial markets are heavily influenced by changes in investor sentiment, often described as “risk-on” and “risk-off” behaviour. While many factors shape this, energy markets, particularly oil, play a central role.
Energy prices do not just affect fuel costs. They play a central role in shaping inflation, interest rates and broader financial markets. When oil and natural gas prices move, the impact rarely stays contained. It feeds through into the cost of living, influences central bank decisions and shifts expectations across global markets.
For many years, investors tended to treat bonds as the backdrop and equities as the headline. That is harder to argue today. In the US, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 0.52% on 4 August 2020, rose to 4.26% on 17 April 2026, and briefly moved above 5% in October 2023. The benchmark cost of money has shifted significantly, and investors now watch government yields almost as closely as they watch stock indices.
Financial markets are not only driven by economic data. They are also constantly pricing uncertainty. This is where the idea of the global risk premium comes in. In simple terms, it is the extra return investors expect for taking on risk in an uncertain world. When uncertainty rises, that required return increases, and the impact is often felt across equities, bonds, currencies and commodities at the same time.
