The US Dollar Index has transitioned from trending to drifting, flattening out into a consolidation. Earlier last year we saw clear momentum (both upward and downward), but now the range has tightened, and familiar trend channels have flattened. The market looks coiled, as if in a “decision zone” with no breakout or breakdown – just tension building…
The first full trading week of 2026 unfolded with a steady macro backdrop and limited change in central bank expectations. Policy signals across major economies remained broadly consistent with late-December messaging, reinforcing a sense of continuity rather than transition. Inflation trends continue to ease gradually, while growth indicators point to moderation rather than deterioration, keeping investors positioned cautiously but constructively.
After the inflation shock of 2022 and 2023, price pressures have finally started to cool. Inflation has not disappeared, but it has slowed, and that phase is known as disinflation. Prices are still rising, just not at the pace that unsettled households, policymakers, and markets a couple of years ago.
Global policymakers enter 2026 with policy divergence and a broadly stable backdrop. In the US, Fed officials have signalled a pause in rate hikes after a 3.50-3.75% policy rate (no hikes likely ahead and only one cut pencilled in 2026). Economic data have shown cooling inflation and modest growth, and markets now see Fed cuts (perhaps two) outpacing other central banks.
