Silver has spent more than a decade living under a heavy ceiling. It has had a long-term descending trendline that stretches all the way back to the post–financial crisis era. Every attempt to break out since 2008 has been rejected at the same sloping resistance.
The US dollar has been the dominant force in global markets for the better part of the last few years. Back in 2022-23, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and waves of global risk-off sentiment pushed the dollar higher and higher. The DXY hovered in the low 100s, with every Fed speech and CPI print moving the needle. It was the trade that just kept working.
Last week’s backdrop was shaped by the end of the 43-day US government shutdown and cautious tone from central banks. The funding extension cleared a key uncertainty but created a backlog of economic data, with the October CPI report cancelled.
For two years, the dollar’s climb against the yen has been one of the biggest stories in FX, powered by a yawning interest-rate gap between the US and Japan. That gap made shorting the yen almost a no-brainer. But now, things feel… different. The pair is pressing against multi-decade highs, volatility is ticking up, and Tokyo is sounding more urgent. It’s the kind of moment where traders pause and ask: Is this the top?
The US dollar has been the dominant force in global markets for the better part of the last few years. Back in 2022-23, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and waves of global risk-off sentiment pushed the dollar higher and higher. The DXY hovered in the low 100s, with every Fed speech and CPI print moving the needle. It was the trade that just kept working.
