The Super Bowl Indicator 2026: Can the Big Game Predict the Market?

Super Bowl 2026 is officially in the books. The confetti have fallen, the trophy has been lifted, and once again a familiar Wall Street question surfaces:

Did the game predict the stock market?

With the 2026 matchup between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks, some traders will once again reference one of the strangest market indicators ever created: the Super Bowl Indicator.

Let’s break down what it is, why it gained popularity, and whether investors in 2026 should care.

What Is the Super Bowl Indicator?

The Super Bowl Indicator (SBI) was introduced in 1978 by sportswriter Leonard Koppett as satire. He was poking fun at Wall Street’s tendency to find patterns in random data.

The rule is simple:

• If an NFC team wins: The S&P 500 rises (bull market)
• If an AFC team wins: The market falls (bear market)

Originally, it even tracked whether teams were part of the old NFL (pre-merger) or AFL, technicality believers still debate today.

The benchmark typically referenced is the S&P 500, measured by whether it finishes the calendar year higher or lower.

How Accurate Has the Super Bowl Indicator Really Been?

From the first Super Bowl in 1967 through the late 1990s, the indicator appeared almost magical:

• 1967-1997: ~85-90% accuracy
• 17 out of 20 correct from 1978-1997
• Full history through 2025: ~70-71% accuracy

That early streak gave it pop culture credibility and ensured annual media coverage.

But here’s what most articles don’t emphasise: The modern data tells a very different story.

The Modern Era: The Indicator Breaks Down

Looking specifically at 2004-2023 (20 years of data): Only 5 out of 20 predictions were correct.

• That’s 25% accuracy.
• Worse than flipping a coin.
  

Some notable failures:

• 2008: New York Giants (NFC) won → Market fell -38%
• 2018: Philadelphia Eagles (NFC) won → Market declined
• 2022: Los Angeles Rams (NFL team) won → Market fell ~19%
• 2023: Kansas City Chiefs (AFC) won → Market surged ~24%

Post-2005 accuracy sits closer to 30% overall. In other words: The more modern and data-driven markets became, the less the Super Bowl Indicator “worked.”

Why It Seems to “Work”: Correlation vs. Causation

The Super Bowl Indicator feels compelling because humans are wired to find patterns, even where none exist. Markets feel uncertain and complex, while football feels structured and predictable, so linking the two creates a comforting illusion of control. But correlation is not causation. 

The outcome of a football game has no impact on corporate earnings, Federal Reserve policy, inflation, or any of the real drivers of the S&P 500. Its early success was likely statistical luck over a small sample size, the kind of streak you might see flipping a coin. We remember the hits and forget the misses, and the myth survives because it’s memorable, not because it’s predictive.

What Actually Moves Markets

Markets respond to capital flows, earnings expectations, and policy shifts, not championships. Interest rate decisions affect borrowing costs and valuations. Inflation influences margins and discount rates. Corporate earnings ultimately determine stock prices over time. Liquidity conditions shape risk appetite, while geopolitical developments and fiscal policy can alter investor confidence. These structural drivers, not the Super Bowl, determine the direction of the S&P 500.

Super Bowl 2026: Patriots vs. Seahawks

With Super Bowl 2026 now decided, investors can officially stop wondering whether the outcome signalled anything about the stock market.

Before kick-off, bulls were said to prefer an NFC victory while bears quietly cheered for the AFC, thanks to the long running “Super Bowl Indicator.

However, the responsible approach remains the same as it was before kick-off:

Stay focused on fundamentals. Serious investors base decisions on:

• Diversification
• Risk management
• Long-term strategy
• Evidence-based analysis

They do not rebalance portfolios because of touchdowns.

The Bottom Line

The Super Bowl Indicator is entertaining Wall Street folklore. Its early accuracy was statistical coincidence. Its modern record shows no reliable predictive power.

Enjoy the game, enjoy the spectacle. But when it comes to your portfolio, stick with discipline, data, and long-term thinking.

Because in investing, unlike football, superstition rarely wins championships.

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